The top 50 NHL unrestricted free agents: Ryan O'Reilly, Tyler Bertuzzi and more (2024)

With four teams left battling it out for the Stanley Cup, 28 others are already planning ahead for next year’s battle.

Enter: Offseason Mode. First step: free agency.

That’s where the first line of upgrades usually come for next season and it’s also where the biggest mistakes are often made. A lot of the time the deals don’t work out, sometimes with disastrous consequences. There are exceptions to the rule, but it’ll be hard to find them this year with what looks like the weakest crop of free agents in recent memory featuring exactly zero star players on the market. Woof. Free agency day is already an overhyped day that has become difficult to be excited about in recent years given the high probability of failure as is. This year it’s even harder.

Still, there are some decent players on the market that can help around the edges. The key will be not overpaying them. Players are usually paid for what they’ve done to date, but what matters most is what they will do. To figure that out I’ve projected each player’s future Net Rating for next season and beyond, mapping out each year with how much cap their value should be worth. Usually, it’s a lot less than expected.

Using a model for that is an inexact science at best, but at the very least it provides a baseline for potentially avoiding multi-million dollar mistakes. This is a difficult sport to predict with a lot of volatility and while the predictions may not be perfect for that reason, they’re generally better than the alternative.

Below you’ll find the NHL’s top 50 unrestricted free agents with player cards showing future trajectories and value for the most intriguing ones. For those who need it, an explainer can be found at the bottom of the post.

All contract projections are via Evolving Hockey based on a salary cap of $83.5 million. Contract value according to GSVA is based on a stagnant cap for one season followed by 3 percent inflation year over year. Click to expand any player card.

Top-end Talent

Dmitry Orlov

Usually the free agency class has at least a few top-line or top-pair players. Last year there were eight. This year? Just one.

Dmitry Orlov projects to have the 41st-highest Net Rating among defensem*n next year which makes him a slightly above-average No. 2 defenseman; definitely top-pairing quality.

How long he can stay at the level is the biggest question surrounding the 31-year-old though, as is usually the case for any free agent in his 30s. Evolving Hockey projects a five-year deal worth $6 million and while Orlov is definitely at that level now and should be there next year as well, it’s unlikely he will remain there as the deal ages.

That risk might be worth it to a contending team, however. Orlov has shown he’s capable of eating tough minutes with the Capitals and looked like a man unleashed once he put on the Bruins sweater. He scored 17 points in 23 games as a Bruin while earning 58 percent of the expected goals — numbers that finally aligned with his microstats.

Orlov has never been a big scorer, but his tracked stats suggest he’s one of the league’s best defensem*n with the puck on his stick. He’s absolutely elite at breaking the puck out, carrying it up ice, and setting up chances with his passes.

If there’s concern with Orlov it’s with his current ability to handle the rigors of the postseason. Despite top-flight five-on-five numbers with the Bruins during the season he was on the ice for only 45 percent of the expected goals during the playoffs. Most of that was on defense where he was on the ice for 3.2 expected goals against per 60, 0.42 more than when he was off the ice. That continues a worrying four-year trend for Orlov. Since 2020, Orlov has the ninth-worst impact on expected goals against among defenders that have played over 100 minutes.

Orlov is still a worthy talent to invest in, but like any free agent, he comes with his fair share of risk attached.

Strong Support Players

Tyler Bertuzzi

The best forward available in the 2023 UFA class is Tyler Bertuzzi. Yeah. Not the sexiest list of marquee names at the top this year. Any team looking for a game changer at the top of the lineup won’t find one.

Bertuzzi, though, is a game changer in the middle of a contending lineup. The perfect second-line winger that can score the greasy goals necessary to come out ahead in a playoff atmosphere. The Bruins may have lost in the opening round, but that was through no fault of Bertuzzi’s, whose first taste of playoff action was a huge success. He scored five goals and 10 points in seven games and looked like a beast on every shift.

That’s not unexpected given his history with the Red Wings where he’s always been a strong play-driver and scored 62 points in 68 games last season. After a rough start to the year, he carried that over once he joined the Bruins, a predictable outcome considering how much offense Bertuzzi was creating.

The rub with Bertuzzi is that his play without the puck can be his undoing. His defensive impacts are below average and it’s a big reason why the Bruins were heavily outscored and outchanced with Bertuzzi on the ice at five-on-five in the playoffs. That’s what’s keeping him from being a true top-line player, but he’s still a great fit in any top six.

Ryan O’Reilly

I was one of the few people not completely sold on Ryan O’Reilly at the deadline given his drop-off with the Blues. His defensive numbers had slipped from his Selke days and offensively he was struggling to produce relative to team. At 32, a decline shouldn’t be too surprising.

It appeared I was dead wrong during the regular season where O’Reilly looked like his vintage self, especially offensively with Toronto. The Leafs earned over 60 percent of the actual and expected goals with O’Reilly on the ice mostly due to increased offense. He scored 11 points in 13 games, earning 2.4 points-per-60 at five-on-five with six of seven points being primary. He looked like the missing piece.

But in the playoffs, those concerns crept back. O’Reilly had nine points in 11 games, but only five of those were at five-on-five and four of those five points were secondary assists. More concerning was how he got caved in at five-on-five driving his own line. Toronto was outscored 9-6 with O’Reilly on the ice and earned just 44 percent of the expected goals.

The key to O’Reilly’s regular-season success was that he spent a lot of time with John Tavares, William Nylander and Mitch Marner. Toronto abandoned that strategy quickly in the postseason and O’Reilly was left a bit exposed as a result.

That suggests he’s become a good complementary piece with someone who can move the puck up ice, but would struggle being “The Guy” on a line. That probably explains his drop-off with the Blues and why any prospective team would need to think long and hard about fit. Especially if the price tag comes in at over $5 million.

Frederik Andersen
Projected contract: $4.2 million x two years

When healthy, Frederik Andersen is one of the league’s best goalies. We saw that last year in Carolina where he saved 28 goals above expected off a .922 save percentage and we’re seeing it again in these playoffs with a .931, saving six goals above expected. The model projects him to save 12 goals above expected per 82 next season which ranks eighth.

The thing about Andersen is that he struggles to stay healthy. He only managed 34 games this past season and saw his numbers crash back down to earth amid injury concerns. Andersen’s track record is enough to be reasonably confident that a team is getting a starter-quality goalie, but there’s deserved hesitation there. That he plays for a defensively stout Hurricanes team that can often prop up goalie numbers is another concern too.

Max Pacioretty

It’s a huge bummer that Max Pacioretty hardly played with the Hurricanes this season because he seemed like a perfect fit for them. His high-volume offense with the ability to actually finish would’ve fit like a glove.

It’s impossible to know what exactly to expect out of Pacioretty going forward after his past few injury-plagued seasons. He’s 34 now and hasn’t played much hockey at all over the past two years.

But if the cost is cheap based on all of that, then Pacioretty is absolutely worthy of a flier given what he can bring to the table. He projects to be a 30-goal, 60-point player and those are hard to come by on the cheap. And that’s the projection based on 13:38 of ice time — he would be even higher around 15-to-16 minutes.

For a contending team, it might be worth it to sign him as a Black Ace and keep him in bubble wrap until the playoffs begin. And then pray he makes it through them.

J.T. Compher

This is a tale of two seasons. There’s the J.T. Compher who filled in admirably for the departed Nazem Kadri during the regular season, one who scored 52 points and generated some Selke buzz. Then there’s the Compher who was a complete playoff no-show, scoring just two points and earning 42 percent of the expected goals while being outscored 5-2. What good is shutdown center billing if a player can’t deliver on that come playoff time?

That’s the question that needs to be asked of Compher, who looks like he’s in line for a deal north of $5 million. He would certainly be deserving of one given his play during the regular season where he ate big minutes and suppressed chances to an elite degree. He’s shown strong defensive growth over the last few seasons and is one of the top centers available on the market for that reason.

But his performance in the playoffs was just very hard to stomach. According to data tracked by Corey Sznajder, Compher contributed to the fewest scoring chances in Colorado’s series against Seattle.

Colorado forwards ranked by scoring chances created per 60 in the first round.

(Data from AllThreeZones)#GoAvsGo pic.twitter.com/wzUYqXJZiC

— JFresh (@JFreshHockey) May 5, 2023

Tristan Jarry
Projected contract: $6.8 million x six years

If Evolving Hockey’s contract forecasts are to be trusted (and they’re usually very good), then Tristan Jarry might be the next goalie in line for a problematic deal. The most important lesson with goalies is not to overcommit and not to overspend and a six-year deal upward of $7 million would do both.

The appeal is that Jarry is one of the league’s few true workhorses (10th in games played the last two seasons) and his .914 save percentage is starter quality, ranking 14th during the timeframe. The issue is that he’s down to 23rd when factoring for the difficulty of shots faced.

Even if a team is willing to pay for that, there’s no guarantee they’re getting it with Jarry. That’s always the problem with any goalie outside the five best — there’s no guarantee they will stay consistently at that level. The model currently projects Jarry to be the 19th-best goalie next year. There’s a chance he enters the top 10, but that chance is not nearly worth the freight of a big-money deal.

Michael Bunting

According to the model, there is no forward on the market more valuable than Michael Bunting and it’s not too difficult to see why. Since joining the Leafs Bunting has been on the ice for 58 percent of the expected goals and 62 percent of goals at five-on-five. Very few players see a bigger jump in offensive creation than Bunting and he’s scored 2.55 points per 60 at five-on-five in Toronto. That ranks 24th in the league over the time frame, narrowly ahead of Jonathan Huberdeau and Artemi Panarin. The only thing holding back his point totals is ice time, specifically on the power play.

The model sees Bunting as a $6 million player, a shade above the $5.5 million projected for him by Evolving Hockey. The problem is that treats his numbers in a vacuum which isn’t the right way to go about things for a player who has spent a lot of time next to Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner. How much of Bunting’s high Offensive Rating is a product of who he plays with?

That’s a difficult question to answer and it’s not dissimilar to the one posed with Zach Hyman two years ago either. With that context, there are two schools of thought. Either Bunting is worth what Hyman got because he filled his role just as well and Hyman has proven to be a strong player in Edmonton. Or Bunting isn’t worth it because that role was easily filled by someone off the scrap heap for a million bucks and Hyman is only playing well because he’s with Connor McDavid.

Both thoughts can be true and the real answer is somewhere in the middle. Playing with superstars is a cushy gig that can seriously prop up a player’s expected value. But it’s also worth it to find players who thrive with superstars, doing the dirty work to make them better. Seeing Matthews and Marner and McDavid have their best seasons playing with the Hymans and Buntings of the world suggests the relationship is not just a one-way street. In the right situation, Bunting should be worth it just as Hyman has been for the Oilers.

Vladislav Gavrikov

I was a huge skeptic of Vladislav Gavrikov at the deadline, but all of that has changed after 20 games with an actually good team. In 20 games with the Kings, Gavrikov was on the ice for 59 percent of the expected goals and 70 percent of the actual goals. That carried over to the playoffs where he was at 56 and 66 percent respectively, with his pair being the only one that won their matchup.

He was a monster. One big change according to Sznajder’s data: Gavrikov went from allowing a carry-in 66 percent of the time with Columbus to just 25 percent with Los Angeles. He also denied 32 percent of entries. That’s probably just small sample randomness, but his added aggressiveness at the line helps explain the big jump in his ability to drive play.

The model has come around on Gavrikov since making adjustments for players who eat minutes and have switched teams (focusing more on their relative metrics in the latter regard). The end result is valuing Gavrikov as an above-average defenseman, one who projects to rank 78th in Net Rating next season. A strong No. 3 defender whose market value is perfectly in line with the contract that Evolving Hockey projects for him.

Vladimir Tarasenko

In 2021-22 Vladimir Tarasenko looked like he was back. He had 82 points in 75 games while earning 55 percent of the goals at five-on-five. He looked like a player worthy of his contract.

Flash forward a year later and the same questions that plagued Tarasenko before that season have resurfaced. Yes he can still score and put up points, but is it worth the cost considering his defensive game? Not at this current rate where Tarasenko earned just 45 percent of the expected goals with the Blues and 44 percent with the Rangers. That’s not enough if a player is only scoring 50 points — not at $5.5 million.

The biggest concern is that time has snuck up on Tarasenko, who is now 31 years old. He’s still a strong threat off the rush, but his effectiveness there will likely dry up as he gets further into his 30s. A four-year deal pays him until he’s 35 and while he may possibly be worth $5.5 million in the right situation now, it’s unlikely he will by the end of the deal.

Damon Severson

Few defenders impact the game better than Damon Severson, but there are also very few who are as maligned as the Devils’ blueliner. The model loves Severson as expected — most models do. Severson’s underlying five-on-five numbers are often very strong as a result of his strong puck-moving ability.

But those numbers don’t always match up with what actually happens, especially offensively. Through his entire nine-year career Severson’s goals percentage has never exceeded his expected goals percentage and is 4.4 percentage points lower on average. It wasn’t until this season, when he played in a sheltered role, that the Devils actually outscored their opponents with Severson on the ice. It took a 59 percent expected goals rate to get to 55 percent of the goals for Severson.

He has an immense ability to tilt the ice, but for whatever reason the results don’t follow. Severson is prone to “The Big Mistake,” though that doesn’t quite explain that the discrepancy mostly stems from pucks not going in.

The model believes Severson is a bargain at $4 million and could comfortably play on a team’s second pair, but there’s probably a reason to be cautious if a lot of hockey people aren’t nearly as fond of the player.

Alex Killorn

He’s been a strong offensive foot soldier for the Lightning for 11 seasons, but that feels like it’s coming to an end this offseason. Will teams overpay for his grit and championship pedigree? It’s certainly possible if Evolving Hockey’s contract projection is to be believed, which would put Killorn in the neighborhood of $6 million per season.

That would be a hefty risk given Killorn’s age, an incredible overpay for where Killorn currently is in his career. There was a time when Killorn would’ve been worth that, but that time isn’t now with his age and how his defensive game has fallen off over the last few seasons. For four straight seasons, the Lightning have earned a better expected goal share with Killorn off the ice compared to on the ice.

Maybe some will be allured by his 28 goals and 65 points last season, and to his credit he did score 2.4 points per 60 at five-on-five. But that feels like it has more to do with his star-studded linemates than it does with him.

Patrick Kane

Coming off his worst season it’s hard to justify paying Patrick Kane $7 million which is what he likely commands on a new deal based on his pedigree. The expectation on that is a forward who has a Net Rating of plus-five per season and though Kane regularly exceeded that prior to last season, he fell well below the mark in 2022-23. Being part of the tank brigade in Chicago doesn’t fly as a valid excuse given his performance in New York.

The talent is there for Kane to be very productive, it’s just a matter of whether what we saw in 2022-23 was a sign of things to come or an aberration in a Hall of Fame career. Right now he doesn’t project to offer enough offensively to offset his liabilities without the puck, but it was only a year ago where that wasn’t the case. Then, he was one of the most gifted offensive creators in the league, a wizard at creating chances with his passing and moving the puck up ice well.

It’s possible that Kane’s hip issues played a role in all that and he can bounce back if healthy. It’s just a very tough sell at his potential price point given his age and trajectory.

Jordan Staal

This felt like a good year for Jordan Staal to get his defensive due by being voted as a Selke Trophy finalist. That didn’t come to be, but a prospective team is still getting one of the best shutdown centers in the league. Defensively, he’s a problem for his opponent.

Offensively, he’s a problem for the team he plays for and that likely only gets worse as the 34-year-old goes deeper into his 30s. Staal himself is still an efficient five-on-five scorer, but relative to teammates he doesn’t create a lot of chances. He’s great off the forecheck and that works wonders defensively, there’s just not a lot of oomph to those plays.

Maybe Staal can thrive more with the puck outside of Carolina’s system on the off chance he leaves, but he’s getting to the point of his career where he’s a defensive specialist only. Nothing wrong with that, it’s just a matter of how much that should cost.

Erik Gustafsson

It was a bit inexplicable that the Leafs barely used Erik Gustafsson in the playoffs after acquiring him at the deadline given the season he had with Washington. Granted, he has a rather lengthy track record of being a liability in his own end and didn’t have the most impressive audition during the season. But the Leafs badly needed the kind of offense from the back end that Gustafsson would’ve likely provided.

The proof of that happened when John Carlson went down to injury for the Capitals. Gustafsson stepped up in a big way, which is what makes the 31-year-old an extremely intriguing free-agent option this summer. The model is likely too high on his ability given his past, but his numbers with Washington are hard not to love. He scored 38 points in 61 games while earning 54 percent of the expected goals and 57 percent of the actual goals. Both numbers were among the highest in the league relative to teammates — and those results weren’t in sheltered minutes either.

The thing with Gustafsson is that while it may not be pretty, his teams always outscore expectations. Every season. It’s the opposite of Severson’s case in that over his career, Gustafsson’s teams have earned 53 percent of the goals despite earning just 49 percent of the expected goals. It’s not by the book, but he gets results.

Ryan Graves

There were very few defenders who played tougher minutes than Ryan Graves did this year for the Devils. The results? Around 53 percent of the expected goals and 58 percent of the actual goals. The latter number is a massive step up from a season prior, though it helps when the goalies behind him can actually make a save.

Graves has a reputation for being a strong defensive defender and he’s certainly been thrust in that role during his career. Being a 6-foot-5, 220-pound behemoth helps fill that role too — but the price of that probably shouldn’t be in the ballpark of $5 million per season. And it definitely shouldn’t come on a five-year deal.

The issue with paying that much for Graves is that his puck skills are very limited, making his worth pretty one-dimensional. He struggles in the offensive zone, he struggles to rush up ice, and he struggles to move the puck out of his zone. Graves is a good player for what he can do without the puck, but there are better ways to spend $5 million in this league.

Matt Dumba

Once upon a time Matt Dumba was an offensive dynamo for the Wild, one who scored a ton of goals and created a lot of chances from the back end. Since an injury-riddled 2018-19 season where he scored 12 goals in 32 games, Dumba has failed to crack 10 goals or 30 points with this season being a particular low: four goals and 14 points in 79 games.

Dumba’s offensive utility has waned, but in its place has come a newfound defensive presence — aided in part by shutdown partner Jonas Brodin. Dumba’s numbers have been excellent in that regard as a cog in the Minnesota machine and that stems from his ability to break the puck out. That’s his primary function on that pair and he thrives in the role in terms of retrieving pucks and getting them out safely. Dumba has one of the lowest failed exit rates in the league.

The question with Dumba is whether he’ll be nearly as effective defensively without Brodin next to him. Considering his projected cost — $5.5 million for five seasons — teams better be sure he can deliver those results. Even if he can, the lack of offense at this stage of his career makes Dumba a tough sell at that price anyway.

Evan Rodrigues

There was a time when “Evan Rodrigues” and “useful depth” were synonyms. The last two seasons have shown he’s worth moving up a class as someone who can be a key member of a team’s supporting cast at both ends of the ice. Rodrigues put up back-to-back seasons earning 57 to 59 percent of the expected goals thanks mostly to his ability to create offense. Rodrigues had 9.6 scoring chance contributions this year according to data tracked by Sznajder, third on the Avalanche and right in line with players like Taylor Hall and David Perron. He’s proving himself as a legitimate top-six-caliber player.

Jason Zucker

The 2022-23 season was a terrific renaissance season for Jason Zucker. He scored 1.34 goals per 60 at five-on-five (17th in the league) and returned to being a play-driving monster. He was a pleasant surprise after a few years of decline as a Penguin. At 31, though, it would be difficult to justify another big-ticket deal for Zucker. He can still be a useful offensive driver as the primary forechecker on the top two lines, one who can chip in 20 to 25 goals. That’s worth something. But $4.5 million or $5 million is a little rich depending on the term. Last season feels more like a dead cat bounce.

Useful Depth

Semyon Varlamov
Projected contract: $2.4 million x two years

Consistently strong as an Islander, even after losing the starting job over the last two seasons. You can set a watch to Varlamov’s .910 to .914 save percentage, which looks even more impressive over the last two seasons with scoring going up. In that time his 11.5 goals saved above expected ranks 19th in the league.

Ivan Barbashev
Projected contract: $4.5 million x four years
Model value: $3.3 million

Projected Offensive Rating: +1
Projected Defensive Rating: -2

With the way Barbashev is playing in these playoffs next to Jack Eichel and Jonathan Marchessault, his stock is soaring. His defensive track record isn’t great although his play with Vegas suggests that’s a moot point in the right situation.

Tomas Tatar
Projected contract: $4.3 million x four years
Model value: $3.7 million

Projected Offensive Rating: -1
Projected Defensive Rating: +2

The perfect player to help bring a team to the playoffs thanks to his strong play-driving ability. In the playoffs? Zero dawg in him. For his career, Tatar has just 13 playoff points in 52 games, a 21-point pace. A good add for a bubble team, but not a contender.

Scott Mayfield
Projected contract: $4.5 million x four years
Model value: $3.1 million

Projected Offensive Rating: -1
Projected Defensive Rating: +2

A perfectly average defenseman whose skill set leans toward suppressing chances and goals. The Islanders allowed 0.17 fewer expected goals against per 60 with Mayfield on the ice last season.

Shayne Gostisbehere
Projected contract: $5.8 million x four years
Model value: $4.9 million

Projected Offensive Rating: +4
Projected Defensive Rating: -1

Gostisbehere is not the Norris contender he was in 2018, though he’s also not the expendable asset he was in 2021 either. Gostisbehere is still a strong offensive asset who can put up 40 to 50 points on a second pair, he just has weak points defensively. Especially when it comes to defending the rush.

Joonas Korpisalo
Projected contract: $2.6 million x two years
Model value: $3.6 million

I’m still wary of Korpisalo turning into a pumpkin considering his past, but his 2022-23 season was impressive enough to consider him as a strong 1B option with starter potential. The flashes of talent have always been there and it looks like he’s finally putting it together. He saved 35 goals per 82 games this year after averaging minus-35 per 82 the prior four seasons.

Antti Raanta
Projected contract: $3.3 million x three years

Injuries are always a concern with Antti Raanta, but when he’s healthy he’s solid. He did well in Carolina behind a solid defensive structure, posting a .911 in 55 games over the past two seasons and saving 14 goals above expected in the process.

Max Domi
Projected contract: $4.4 million x four years
Model value: $3.6 million

Projected Offensive Rating: +3
Projected Defensive Rating: -3

A high-risk player in the sense he brings a lot to the table with the puck, but gives a lot back without the puck.

Perfect example is his playoff performance to date: 11 points in 13 games, yet he’s getting outscored 10-9 at five-on-five thanks to 3.6 goals against per 60. His expected goals against at 3.8 is even worse, especially when compared to how staunch the Stars are otherwise. Dallas gives up 0.53 more expected goals against per 60 with Domi on the ice, the sixth-worst mark among forwards who have played over 100 minutes.

Radko Gudas
Projected contract: $3.1 million x three years
Model value: $2.8 million

Projected Offensive Rating: -2
Projected Defensive Rating: +1

Big, strong, mean. The rugged defensive defender is exactly what a team wants and needs on their third pair come playoff time. Not just for his big hits, but his ability to drive play as well. Over the last three seasons, he’s been on the ice for 57 percent of the actual and expected goals.

Connor Brown
Projected contract: $3.2 million x two years
Model value: $3.0 million

Projected Offensive Rating: -1
Projected Defensive Rating: 0

Brown missed all but four games last season and it’s hard to get a read on what he can still be after injury. Before injury he was one of the game’s best utility players, a jack-of-all-trades who could fit any role up and down the lineup.

Jonathan Toews
Projected contract: $3.7 million x two years
Model value: $2.3 million

Projected Offensive Rating: 0
Projected Defensive Rating: -2

Captain Serious can probably still net a team 50 points, but the former Selke Trophy winner just isn’t what he used to be without the puck. Maybe that can change in a new locale in a lesser role — it’s just a tough ask at his age.

Evgenii Dadonov
Projected contract: $2.7 million x two years
Model value: $1.7 million

Projected Offensive Rating: -3
Projected Defensive Rating: -1

The model isn’t overly fond of Dadonov, but that’s entirely due to his uninspired play with the Habs. As a Star, he looks reborn. He may not be able to lead his own line, but he’s proving to be a strong complementary player and a playoff performer. This postseason he has nine points in 13 games while earning 59 percent of the expected goals.

Alex Kerfoot
Projected contract: $3.6 million x four years
Model value: $2.8 million

Projected Offensive Rating: -3
Projected Defensive Rating: +1

Kerfoot drew the ire of Leafs fans often for his inability to finish. Still, he can pass the puck well and is a very reliable defensive player who does a lot of little things well. He’s especially adept at getting the puck out of his own zone and up ice.

Laurent Brossoit
Projected contract: $1.6 million x two years

An excellent backup goalie who proved in the playoffs he can step up for more when needed. He’s expected to provide average results and can be a serviceable 1B with potential for more. Brossoit has saved 13 goals above expected over his last five seasons over 89 games.

Gustav Nyquist
Projected contract: $3.8 million x three years
Model value: $2.4 million

Projected Offensive Rating: 0
Projected Defensive Rating: -1

Nyquist played nine games total for the Wild and tallied 10 points. Good, right? Well … his on-ice shooting percentage during that stretch was 18.4 percent and he had a 40 percent expected goals rate. Maybe he still has it, but I’m skeptical that wasn’t just a fortunate hot streak.

Carson Soucy
Projected contract: $2.4 million x three years
Model value: $2.6 million

Projected Offensive Rating: -2
Projected Defensive Rating: +1

I’ve been a big proponent of Soucy all year for his defensive ability. He’s great in his own zone at retrieving pucks and getting them out, and he’s excellent at defending his blue line.

John Klingberg
Projected contract: $4.9 million x three years
Model value: $2.2 million

Projected Offensive Rating: +5
Projected Defensive Rating: -6

I don’t know who’s paying $5 million for Klingberg in the year 2023, but it wouldn’t be me. He can still deliver some offense and that may be worthwhile in a sheltered role, but he’s on a downward defensive spiral that makes him a risky investment. The talent is there, though, which would make Klingberg an interesting rehabilitation project for a savvy franchise.

Luke Schenn
Projected contract: $1.9 million x three years
Model value: $1.4 million

Projected Offensive Rating: -2
Projected Defensive Rating: -1

No player saw their stock rise more in the playoffs than Schenn, who elevated his game to previously unseen heights. He was a defensive beast for the Leafs and while teams should be wary not to overpay for that, Schenn is a nice piece to have. A proven playoff performer.

Erik Haula
Projected contract: $4.2 million x four years
Model value: $2.7 million

Projected Offensive Rating: -1
Projected Defensive Rating: +1

The speedster is strangely not much of a puck transporter up the ice and struggled to finish chances last season. In the playoffs, he had just one point at five-on-five in 12 contests. Not ideal, but Haula does put his teams in positions to succeed with his ability to drive play. It’ll just be a frustrating watch.

Justin Holl
Projected contract: $3.6 million x three years
Model value: $2.5 million

Projected Offensive Rating: -1
Projected Defensive Rating: 0

The much-maligned defender had an awful playoffs, but he’s better than given credit for and can thrive outside the pressures of the Toronto market. Holl has a poor gap, but he moves the puck out of the zone well and can handle a top-four role.

Sean Monahan
Projected contract: $3.9 million x three years
Model value: $2.9 million

Projected Offensive Rating: -1
Projected Defensive Rating: 0

It was sad to see Monahan’s comeback tour derailed with injury last season as he looked like he took a strong step forward with Montreal. Can get a team 45 points with potential for more while being an average possession player.

James van Riemsdyk
Projected contract: $3.0 million x two years
Model value: $3.0 million

Projected Offensive Rating: -2
Projected Defensive Rating: +1

It’s still a bit surprising that the Flyers weren’t able to trade van Riemsdyk at the deadline for a reasonable price. Despite his reputation (likely due to his very weak ability to get pucks out) van Riemsdyk’s defensive results have been mostly solid as a Flyer. He can still chip in 20 goals and 20 assists from the middle six.

Andreas Athanasiou
Projected contract: $3.0 million x three years
Model value: $3.0 million

Projected Offensive Rating: 0
Projected Defensive Rating: -1

Nothing wrong with a 20-20 winger who adds speed to the lineup, just don’t put him too high up in the lineup without any support or you’ll get the same on-ice results the Blackhawks did.

Pierre Engvall
Projected contract: $3.4 million x four years
Model value: $2.6 million

Projected Offensive Rating: -3
Projected Defensive Rating: 0

Fell out of favor in Toronto for whatever reason, but proved he can still be a strong utility player for the Islanders. A little soft for his size, though he does a lot of little things well to make up for it.

Connor Clifton
Projected contract: $3.4 million x four years
Model value: $1.9 million

Projected Offensive Rating: -3
Projected Defensive Rating: +1

A solid, sheltered puck-mover who took a nice step forward last season. The price and term are a bit much though for a player who is a bit difficult to trust in a playoff atmosphere and struggles to defend the line.

Conor Sheary
Projected contract: $3.6 million x three years
Model value: $2.1 million

Projected Offensive Rating: -2
Projected Defensive Rating: -1

A useful depth scorer who can shift up the lineup, though his defensive results have declined the last two years.

Nick Bjugstad
Projected contract: $2.3 million x three years
Model value: $2.1 million

Projected Offensive Rating: -4
Projected Defensive Rating: +1

Bjugstad is a 6-6 center who put up strong defensive results this season while playing tough minutes for a lottery team. That carried over with the Oilers where he was on the ice for 55 percent of the expected goals and 64 percent of the actual goals.

Jesper Fast
Projected contract: $2.8 million x three years
Model value: $1.6 million

Projected Offensive Rating: -5
Projected Defensive Rating: +1

An elite forechecker, one of the game’s best penalty killers and an excellent defensive forward in general. A bit of an overpay due to Fast’s inefficiency with the puck, but without the puck he’s a bottom-six star.

Noel Acciari
Projected contract: $1.9 million x three years
Model value: $1.3 million

Projected Offensive Rating: -6
Projected Defensive Rating: +2

Was a tough defensive presence for the Leafs during the regular season, but his inability to create offense was glaring in the postseason. Still a decent fourth-line option who can bruise opponents come playoff time.

Lars Eller
Projected contract: $2.3 million x two years
Model value: $1.0 million

Projected Offensive Rating: -7
Projected Defensive Rating: +2

Offensive results have fallen off a cliff for Eller and that shouldn’t be the expectation for him. He can still be an effective fourth-line center who can step up in a shutdown role when needed.

Pius Suter
Projected contract: $2.6 million x three years
Model value: $2.3 million

Projected Offensive Rating: -4
Projected Defensive Rating: +1

Lost his offensive game in Detroit last season, but gained a defensive one. Suter struggled to enter the opponent’s zone, though he was a strong asset at getting it out of his own end.

Michael Carcone
Projected contract: $789K x one year
Model value: $2.1 million

Projected Offensive Rating: -4
Projected Defensive Rating: +1

We’re through 50 choices, but I’ll leave you with one bonus long shot: Michael Carcone. Never heard of him? Same here.

He may be just a AAAA player — a diminutive scorer who can light up the minors but struggles in the majors — though his numbers suggest he might be worth a league minimum flier. There’s potentially some cheap upside here.

In 2022-23 Carcone scored 85 points in 65 games with Tucson and in 30 NHL games over the past two years he’s scored one goal per 60 at five-on-five. That’s in the top 100 among forwards. The Coyotes expected goal differential per 60 went up 0.7 with Carcone on the ice too.

Player Card explainer

Offensive Rating: A weighted combination of goals, primary assists, secondary assists, individual expected goals, faceoffs, penalties drawn, expected goals for impact at five-on-five, goals for impact at five-on-five, power-play goal impact and usage. Measured in goals above average.

Defensive Rating: A weighted combination of blocked shots, faceoffs, penalties taken, expected goals against impact at five-on-five, goals against impact at five-on-five, penalty kill impact and usage. Measured in goals above average.

Net Rating: Combined Offensive and Defensive Rating

Contract Expectation: How many goals per season based on Net Rating the player needs to be worth during the duration of the contract to be worth it.

Projected Rating: Net Rating during the duration of the projected contract.

Surplus Rating: How many goals the player is projected to provide based on Net Rating above/below expected value of the contract.

Contract Projection: The contract projection from Evolving Hockey.

Model Value: How much salary the player is worth based on projected Net Rating.

Surplus Value: How overpaid or underpaid the player is expected to be.

Yearly Model Value: How much the player is projected to be worth each season.

Positive Value Probability: The likelihood the player exceeds the value of the contract that season based on the potential range of outcomes.

Trajectory charts: What the player’s Offensive, Defensive and Net Rating projects to be over the next eight seasons. The shaded areas are the range of possible projections based from the 20th to the 80th percentile.

Data via Evolving Hockey, Natural Stat Trick, CapFriendly, NHL

(Photo of Ryan O’Reilly: Claus Andersen / Getty Images)